Conflict briefing
2022-01-01 through 2026-08-31
Theater totals are not the count inside one map cell. UCDP publishes a finished month, so this page is not a live feed.
7,404Events. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program events mapped in this theater. Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-11. Date: 2026-08-31.
35,113Best fatality estimate. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program best fatality estimate for this theater. Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-11. Date: 2026-08-31.
Human toll
UCDP best estimate, all parties
since 1 Jan 2022
35,113
Uppsala Conflict Data Program, 2026-08-31
How this number was counted
Days through 2025-12-31 are UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset version 26.1 (https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ged/ged261-csv.zip), best 31,115. Days after 2025-12-31 are UCDP Candidate Events Dataset GEDEvent_v26_0_8 (https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/candidateged/GEDEvent_v26_0_8.csv), best 3,998. A later candidate file replaces the same event id. The figure is the sum of those best estimates. Window 2022-01-01 through 2026-08-31. Low 32,866, high 45,966. All parties. Not an injury count. Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-11.
Cite this
Stable URL: https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-ucdp:sahel:fatalities
APA
ARC Warning. (2026). : UCDP best estimate, all parties. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-ucdp:sahel:fatalities
MLA
": UCDP best estimate, all parties." ARC Warning, 2026-08-31, https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-ucdp:sahel:fatalities.
Plain
: UCDP best estimate, all parties. ARC Warning. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-ucdp:sahel:fatalities
Burkina Faso: Displaced
end-2025 stock
2,062,534
Earlier readings
- 2024-12-31: 2,062,534
- 2025-12-31: 2,062,534
How this number was counted
UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics year-end stock of internally displaced people originating from Burkina Faso for 2025. Not a fatality count. People are not added to the death toll.
Cite this
Stable URL: https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:BKF:displaced
APA
ARC Warning. (2025). Burkina Faso: Burkina Faso: Displaced. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:BKF:displaced
MLA
"Burkina Faso: Burkina Faso: Displaced." ARC Warning, 2025-12-31, https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:BKF:displaced.
Plain
Burkina Faso: Burkina Faso: Displaced. ARC Warning. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:BKF:displaced
Burkina Faso: Refugees
end-2025 stock
351,209
Earlier readings
- 2024-12-31: 150,081
- 2025-12-31: 351,209
How this number was counted
UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics year-end stock of refugees originating from Burkina Faso for 2025. Not a fatality count. People are not added to the death toll.
Cite this
Stable URL: https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:BKF:refugees
APA
ARC Warning. (2025). Burkina Faso: Burkina Faso: Refugees. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:BKF:refugees
MLA
"Burkina Faso: Burkina Faso: Refugees." ARC Warning, 2025-12-31, https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:BKF:refugees.
Plain
Burkina Faso: Burkina Faso: Refugees. ARC Warning. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:BKF:refugees
Mali: Displaced
end-2025 stock
414,524
Earlier readings
- 2024-12-31: 360,591
- 2025-12-31: 414,524
How this number was counted
UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics year-end stock of internally displaced people originating from Mali for 2025. Not a fatality count. People are not added to the death toll.
Cite this
Stable URL: https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:MLI:displaced
APA
ARC Warning. (2025). Mali: Mali: Displaced. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:MLI:displaced
MLA
"Mali: Mali: Displaced." ARC Warning, 2025-12-31, https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:MLI:displaced.
Plain
Mali: Mali: Displaced. ARC Warning. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:MLI:displaced
Mali: Refugees
end-2025 stock
519,738
Earlier readings
- 2024-12-31: 354,075
- 2025-12-31: 519,738
How this number was counted
UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics year-end stock of refugees originating from Mali for 2025. Not a fatality count. People are not added to the death toll.
Cite this
Stable URL: https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:MLI:refugees
APA
ARC Warning. (2025). Mali: Mali: Refugees. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:MLI:refugees
MLA
"Mali: Mali: Refugees." ARC Warning, 2025-12-31, https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:MLI:refugees.
Plain
Mali: Mali: Refugees. ARC Warning. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:MLI:refugees
Niger: Displaced
end-2025 stock
459,585
Earlier readings
- 2024-12-31: 507,438
- 2025-12-31: 459,585
How this number was counted
UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics year-end stock of internally displaced people originating from Niger for 2025. Not a fatality count. People are not added to the death toll.
Cite this
Stable URL: https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:NGR:displaced
APA
ARC Warning. (2025). Niger: Niger: Displaced. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:NGR:displaced
MLA
"Niger: Niger: Displaced." ARC Warning, 2025-12-31, https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:NGR:displaced.
Plain
Niger: Niger: Displaced. ARC Warning. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:NGR:displaced
Niger: Refugees
end-2025 stock
85,591
Earlier readings
- 2024-12-31: 44,119
- 2025-12-31: 85,591
How this number was counted
UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics year-end stock of refugees originating from Niger for 2025. Not a fatality count. People are not added to the death toll.
Cite this
Stable URL: https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:NGR:refugees
APA
ARC Warning. (2025). Niger: Niger: Refugees. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:NGR:refugees
MLA
"Niger: Niger: Refugees." ARC Warning, 2025-12-31, https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:NGR:refugees.
Plain
Niger: Niger: Refugees. ARC Warning. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/sahel#toll-unhcr:sahel:NGR:refugees
Research dataset · UCDP
Each point is UCDP’s best fatality estimate for that month in the named theater. Missing months are left out. The series is the theater, not this one cell.
Monthly figures
- Sahel 2025-03: 1,184. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2025-04: 609. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2025-05: 1,027. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2025-06: 917. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2025-07: 783. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2025-08: 542. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2025-09: 497. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2025-10: 550. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2025-11: 399. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2025-12: 271. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2026-01: 421. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2026-02: 658. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2026-03: 325. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2026-04: 478. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2026-05: 705. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2026-06: 576. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2026-07: 526. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
- Sahel 2026-08: 309. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
No verified media for this area yet.
Africa Corps
Also called Russian Africa Corps.
State military
Who they are
Africa Corps is a Russian military formation that operates with the juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. It replaced the Wagner group’s role.
Goals
Moscow presents the Africa Corps as a Russian state force that trains and fights with partner governments in Africa.
It is the Russian formation that followed the Wagner group in the Sahel. It is not a local army. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program
Capabilities
- Infantry advisers and fighters. Deployed with Sahel juntas
- Armed drones and helicopters. Used in support of local offensives
- Convoy protection. A common task around capitals and mines
Estimated personnel
No reliable public estimate
Backers
Independent assessment:
It is a Russian state force. The host junta is the local partner, not the owner of the unit.
Last reviewed
Approved. Updated 2026-10-12.
Sources
Armed Forces of Burkina Faso
Also called FABF.
State military
Who they are
This is Burkina Faso’s state army. A junta has run the country since 2022, and the army is fighting jihadist groups.
Goals
The junta says the army and local volunteers are defending the country from jihadist attacks.
Captain Ibrahim Traoré’s junta took power in 2022. The army is fighting JNIM and Islamic State cells.
Capabilities
- Light infantry. The regular army
- Homeland Defense Volunteers. A separate local force
- Older mixed equipment. From several foreign suppliers
Estimated personnel
No reliable public estimate
Backers
Independent assessment:
The junta has turned to Russia after French forces left.
Last reviewed
Approved. Updated 2026-10-12.
Sources
Islamic State Sahel Province
Also called IS-Sahel, ISIS-Sahel.
Non-state armed group
Who they are
Islamic State Sahel Province is the Islamic State’s branch in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso.
Goals
The group says it is a province of the Islamic State.
It is the Islamic State’s branch in the Sahel, and it fights both local armies and JNIM. Source: U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism 2023.
Capabilities
- Raids and ambushes. Mostly small-arms attacks
- Attacks on villages. Civilians are a frequent target
- Competition with JNIM. The two groups fight each other as well as the armies
Estimated personnel
Between 2,000 and 3,000 fighters. The Monitoring Team used the name ISGS. State says that group was renamed ISIS-Sahel in 2022. UN Monitoring Team, Jul 22 2024
Up to 1,000 fighters. State’s 2023 report still heads the entry ISIS in the Greater Sahara and says the group was renamed ISIS-Sahel in 2022. State Department, 2023
Backers
Independent assessment:
It presents itself as part of the Islamic State. A public headcount of fighters sent from outside the Sahel was not found.
Last reviewed
Approved. Updated 2026-10-12.
Sources
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin
Also called JNIM.
Non-state armed group
Who they are
JNIM is al-Qaeda’s armed group in the Sahel. It operates in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.
Goals
JNIM says it is building an Islamic state and driving out foreign armies.
JNIM is al-Qaeda’s branch in the Sahel. It attacks armies and civilians in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Source: U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism 2023
Capabilities
- Roadside bombs. A common attack method
- Raids on army posts. Often by motorcycle and truck
- Attacks toward coastal West Africa. State says the group has pushed into the northern edges of Benin and Togo
Estimated personnel
Approximately 5,000 to 6,000 fighters. The Monitoring Team said the group was still expanding in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. UN Monitoring Team, Jul 22 2024
Backers
Independent assessment:
JNIM is tied to al-Qaeda. It is not a state army.
Last reviewed
Approved. Updated 2026-10-12.
Sources
Malian Armed Forces
Also called FAMa.
State military
Who they are
The Malian Armed Forces are the state military. A junta has run the country since the coups of 2020 and 2021.
Goals
The junta says the army is retaking the country from jihadist groups.
Colonels seized power in 2020 and 2021. The army is the state force fighting JNIM and Islamic State cells.
Capabilities
- Light infantry. The main force
- Older Soviet-era weapons. With smaller amounts of newer equipment
- Air support. Limited, and often flown with foreign help
Estimated personnel
No reliable public estimate
Backers
Independent assessment:
Russian forces, now under the Africa Corps name, have operated with the junta. French forces left.
Last reviewed
Approved. Updated 2026-10-12.
Sources
Niger Armed Forces
Also called FAN.
State military
Who they are
The Niger Armed Forces are the state military. A junta has run the country since July 2023.
Goals
The junta says the army is fighting terrorists and foreign interference.
General Abdourahamane Tchiani’s coup was in July 2023. The army remains the state military.
Capabilities
- Light infantry. The main force
- Gendarmerie. A police force that fights beside the army
- National Guard. A separate force from the army
Estimated personnel
No reliable public estimate
Backers
Independent assessment:
French and U.S. forces have left. The junta has sought Russian support.
Last reviewed
Approved. Updated 2026-10-12.
Sources
Advisories are country-wide; local conditions vary.
Countries this cell touches: Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger.
No advisory from these feeds is stored for the countries this cell touches.