Loading the conflict sandbox…
ARC Warning is not an emergency service. If you need help now, call your local emergency number.
Loading the conflict sandbox…
Conflict sandbox
One theater for UCDP organized violence located in Israel, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon, Iran, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar from 7 October 2023. The combined total adds those locations. It includes local wars in the same countries, not only cross-border strikes.
These pages read public datasets. They are not a forecast, a target list, or an instruction to fight. Fatality figures are the source's own low, best, and high estimates. Injuries are not in these sources. Missing figures stay blank. ARC Warning is not an emergency service.
Window 2023-10-07 through 2026-08-31. Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-10. Days after the dataset end are not filled in.
Each country row is every UCDP organized-violence event located there since 2023-10-07, including local wars: Syria’s government, Islamic State, and SDF fighting; Yemen’s civil war; and Iraq’s Turkey–PKK and Islamic State events. The cross-border list uses only dyads that name an outside party, and it keeps UCDP’s names. UCDP’s Sanaa side is “Government of Yemen (North Yemen)” and is not renamed. Gaza and the West Bank are split from other Israel by admin-1; UCDP’s country field for those events is still Israel. Iraq militia attacks are not a separate count. The United Kingdom and United States dyad with the Government of Yemen (North Yemen) is the coded campaign in the Red Sea period. It is listed and not drawn, because no launch point is stored. Arcs are schematic anchors between named parties, not flight paths. Cyprus, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman had no events in this extract. Egypt’s domestic events are excluded from the total. Unit locations are omitted. A month of map cells appears 72 hours after the month ends. Fatality totals are not delayed the same way. UNHCR stocks are shown only when that API returned a row. A zero is the API’s zero, not a finding that nobody was displaced. UNRWA and OCHA displacement figures are linked, not copied.
This is the sum of the country rows below. It includes local wars located in those countries, not only cross-border strikes. Best estimate for the whole window: 82,687.
| Year | Low | Best | High | Civilians |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 28,144 | 28,273 | 28,430 | 18,157 |
| 2024 | 30,333 | 31,278 | 32,733 | 12,025 |
| 2025 | 19,750 | 21,493 | 22,876 | 6,582 |
| 2026 | 952 | 1,643 | 1,720 | 130 |
Low and high are sums of UCDP’s per-event low and high. On some days those three numbers do not sort. They are still the published figures. Injured: not in this source.
UCDP organized violence located in each place from 2023-10-07 through 2026-08-31. Gaza Strip and West Bank are UCDP admin-1 areas; the country field on those events is still Israel. Deaths of unknown status are included in best and are not labeled military.
| Place | Events | Low | Best | High | Civilians |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaza Strip | 7,200 | 60,683 | 61,430 | 62,404 | 30,451 |
| West Bank | 424 | 802 | 812 | 842 | 192 |
| Israel | 121 | 1,347 | 1,405 | 1,492 | 752 |
| Lebanon | 1,374 | 4,480 | 4,834 | 5,658 | 1,089 |
| Iran | 124 | 1,375 | 1,520 | 1,539 | 565 |
| Syria | 1,802 | 7,344 | 7,700 | 8,082 | 2,967 |
| Iraq | 444 | 684 | 695 | 939 | 44 |
| Yemen | 780 | 2,445 | 4,272 | 4,784 | 834 |
| Jordan |
Each row is one UCDP dyad. A drawn line uses fixed country anchors. It is not a flight path, a launch site, or an aim point. Schematic endpoints are fixed country anchors, not launch sites or aim points. The line is not a flight path.
Iran — Israel
Dyad: Government of Iran - Government of Israel
Drawn as a schematic arc.
156 events. Low 1,720, best 1,849, high 1,851.
UCDP located these events in Iran (36 events, best 1,194); Syria (106 events, best 613); Israel (10 events, best 32); Iraq (1 events, best 4); Jordan (1 events, best 3); Lebanon (1 events, best 2); West Bank (1 events, best 1).
Iran — Israel
Dyad: Government of Iran - Government of Israel, Government of United States of America
Drawn as a schematic arc.
1 events. Low 2, best 2, high 3.
UCDP located these events in Iran (1 events, best 2).
Israel — Iran
Dyad: Government of Israel - Hamas
Drawn as a schematic arc.
1 events. Low 2, best 2, high 2.
UCDP located these events in Iran (1 events, best 2).
Israel — Lebanon
Dyad: Government of Israel - Hamas
Drawn as a schematic arc.
13 events. Low 35, best 35, high 35.
UCDP located these events in Lebanon (13 events, best 35).
Israel — Lebanon
Dyad: Government of Israel - Hezbollah
Drawn as a schematic arc.
1,402 events. Low 4,508, best 4,863, high 5,688.
UCDP located these events in Lebanon (1,354 events, best 4,781); Israel (46 events, best 77); Syria (2 events, best 5).
Israel — Lebanon
Dyad: Government of Israel - PIJ
Drawn as a schematic arc.
3 events. Low 5, best 5, high 5.
UCDP located these events in Lebanon (3 events, best 5).
Cyprus
None recorded in this UCDP extract.
UCDP recorded no organized-violence event in this country from 2023-10-07 through the candidate dataset. This is an absence in the extract, not a stored finding that no strike or interception occurred.
United Arab Emirates
None recorded in this UCDP extract.
UCDP recorded no organized-violence event in this country from 2023-10-07 through the candidate dataset. This is an absence in the extract, not a stored finding that no strike or interception occurred.
Bahrain
None recorded in this UCDP extract.
UCDP recorded no organized-violence event in this country from 2023-10-07 through the candidate dataset. This is an absence in the extract, not a stored finding that no strike or interception occurred.
Kuwait
None recorded in this UCDP extract.
UCDP recorded no organized-violence event in this country from 2023-10-07 through the candidate dataset. This is an absence in the extract, not a stored finding that no strike or interception occurred.
Oman
None recorded in this UCDP extract.
UCDP recorded no organized-violence event in this country from 2023-10-07 through the candidate dataset. This is an absence in the extract, not a stored finding that no strike or interception occurred.
Egypt
2 events, best estimate 6, excluded from the regional total.
UCDP events located in Egypt in this window are domestic. They are excluded from the combined regional total.
Government of Egypt - Civilians (1 events, best 3); Government of Egypt - Harakit Sawa'id Misr (1 events, best 3).
Killed, best estimate 82,687
Published low, best, and high span 79,179–85,759. Civilian deaths in that best estimate: 36,894. Status unknown: 33,708. Injured: not in this source.
21,988 of the best estimate come from events UCDP did not pin to one day. They stay on the dataset’s start date for that event.
Each dot is 345 people. The best estimate is 82,687 people killed. The last dot may stand for fewer than the others. The dots are a scale, not portraits, and not a list of names.
About 1 in 3,382 of the combined 2025 population of Israel, West Bank and Gaza, Lebanon, Iran, Islamic Rep., Syrian Arab Republic, Iraq, Yemen, Rep., Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar (279,685,031, World Bank, updated 2026-10-08). Population is a scale. It is not a casualty figure.
Palestinian, 2025 UNHCR stock: 48,323 refugees, 0 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
Israel, 2025 UNHCR stock: 1,265 refugees, 0 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
Lebanon, 2025 UNHCR stock: 9,568 refugees, 64,417 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
Iran (Islamic Rep. of), 2025 UNHCR stock: 157,912 refugees, 0 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
Syrian Arab Rep., 2025 UNHCR stock: 4,865,764 refugees, 5,542,227 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
Iraq, 2025 UNHCR stock: 270,671 refugees, 997,334 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
Yemen, 2025 UNHCR stock: 57,327 refugees, 4,795,983 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
Jordan, 2025 UNHCR stock: 5,471 refugees, 0 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
Saudi Arabia, 2025 UNHCR stock: 2,368 refugees, 0 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
Qatar, 2025 UNHCR stock: 73 refugees, 0 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
One-degree cells from UCDP. Country-only locations are left off. This is not a front line and not a unit position. A month appears only after 72 hours past its end. Control maps that ARC Warning cannot redistribute are linked below.
UCDP event density · 1-degree cells · through 2026-08-31 · not a front line
No monthly cells are public for this date yet. The 72-hour wait hides a month until three days after it ends. Schematic arcs between named parties. Not flight paths. Not launch sites.
The combined best estimate above is the sum of these rows through the selected date. Local wars located in a country stay in that row.
| Place | Low | Best | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gaza Strip | 60,683 | 61,430 | 62,404 |
| West Bank | 802 | 812 | 842 |
| Israel | 1,347 | 1,405 | 1,492 |
| Lebanon | 4,480 | 4,834 | 5,658 |
| Iran | 1,375 | 1,520 | 1,539 |
| Syria | 7,344 | 7,700 | 8,082 |
| Iraq | 684 | 695 | 939 |
| Yemen | 2,445 | 4,272 | 4,784 |
| Jordan | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Saudi Arabia | 10 | 10 | 10 |
| Qatar | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Schematic arcs between named parties. Not flight paths. Not launch sites.
No visually confirmed equipment catalog is stored for this conflict. That is not a count of zero.
Unit locations are omitted. Nothing on this page is a live order of battle.
Claimed by Israel. No casualty figure from this site is stored in the snapshot.
ACLED is not copied here. A free key can be configured later. No ACLED number is shown without that key.
Situation reports. Not a control map copied onto ARC Warning.
This publisher draws control areas. ARC Warning does not copy those polygons. The link opens the publisher's own map.
This publisher draws control areas. ARC Warning does not copy those polygons. The link opens the publisher's own map.
Mapped events in this snapshot: 12,146. Events left off the map because the source located them only at country level: 128.
Humanitarian protection and assistance.
Gaza displacement is tracked here. Those figures are not copied into the chart.
Aid-agency reporting.
Aid-agency reporting.
Aid-agency reporting.
Aid-agency reporting.
Aid-agency reporting.
Medical humanitarian work.
Annual GED release. Event dates run through the dataset's last included year.
Monthly candidate release used for 2026 events that are not in GED 26.1.
Year-end stocks of refugees, asylum seekers, and internally displaced people, by origin. Not a fatality count.
National population used only as a scale comparison.
ACLED is not connected. Set ACLED_EMAIL and ACLED_API_KEY. No ACLED figure is shown.
IISS Military Balance public summaries are not copied, because no open figure from IISS was retrieved for this snapshot. The publisher is IISS, The Military Balance.
| 1 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Qatar | 1 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
Israel — Qatar
Dyad: Government of Israel - Hamas
Drawn as a schematic arc.
1 events. Low 6, best 6, high 6.
UCDP located these events in Qatar (1 events, best 6).
Israel — Syria
Dyad: Government of Israel - Government of Syria
Drawn as a schematic arc.
18 events. Low 53, best 53, high 58.
UCDP located these events in Syria (18 events, best 53).
Israel — Syria
Dyad: Government of Israel - Hamas
Drawn as a schematic arc.
2 events. Low 3, best 3, high 3.
UCDP located these events in Syria (2 events, best 3).
Israel — Syria
Dyad: Government of Israel - PIJ
Drawn as a schematic arc.
2 events. Low 23, best 23, high 23.
UCDP located these events in Syria (2 events, best 23).
Israel — Yemen
Dyad: Government of Israel - Government of Yemen (North Yemen)
Drawn as a schematic arc.
21 events. Low 100, best 171, high 204.
UCDP located these events in Yemen (21 events, best 171).
Israel — Yemen
Dyad: Government of Israel - Hamas
Drawn as a schematic arc.
4 events. Low 20, best 22, high 24.
UCDP located these events in Yemen (4 events, best 22).
United Kingdom and United States — Yemen
Dyad: Government of United Kingdom, Government of United States of America - Government of Yemen (North Yemen)
Listed, not drawn. No launch point is stored.
98 events. Low 431, best 928, high 1,259.
UCDP located these events in Yemen (97 events, best 926); Iraq (1 events, best 2).
Yemen — Saudi Arabia
Dyad: Government of Yemen (North Yemen) - Forces of the Presidential Leadership Council
Drawn as a schematic arc.
3 events. Low 10, best 10, high 10.
UCDP located these events in Saudi Arabia (3 events, best 10).