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Conflict sandbox
UCDP organized-violence events in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The window starts on 1 January 2022.
These pages read public datasets. They are not a forecast, a target list, or an instruction to fight. Fatality figures are the source's own low, best, and high estimates. Injuries are not in these sources. Missing figures stay blank. ARC Warning is not an emergency service.
Window 2022-01-01 through 2026-08-31. Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-10. Days after the dataset end are not filled in.
Three countries are added together only in the fatality chart, and each UNHCR origin stays on its own row.
| Year | Low | Best | High | Civilians |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 6,518 | 7,036 | 8,217 | 2,858 |
| 2023 | 8,568 | 8,977 | 11,429 | 2,536 |
| 2024 | 6,555 | 7,387 | 9,567 | 3,228 |
| 2025 | 7,514 | 7,715 | 10,346 | 2,723 |
| 2026 | 296 | 309 | 527 | 87 |
Low and high are sums of UCDP’s per-event low and high. On some days those three numbers do not sort. They are still the published figures. Injured: not in this source.
Killed, best estimate 31,424
Published low, best, and high span 29,451–40,086. Civilian deaths in that best estimate: 11,432. Status unknown: 1,782. Injured: not in this source.
7,232 of the best estimate come from events UCDP did not pin to one day. They stay on the dataset’s start date for that event.
Each dot is 131 people. The best estimate is 31,424 people killed. The last dot may stand for fewer than the others. The dots are a scale, not portraits, and not a list of names.
About 1 in 2,456 of the combined 2025 population of Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger (77,191,232, World Bank, updated 2026-10-08). Population is a scale. It is not a casualty figure.
Mali, 2025 UNHCR stock: 519,738 refugees, 414,524 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
Burkina Faso, 2025 UNHCR stock: 351,209 refugees, 2,062,534 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
Niger, 2025 UNHCR stock: 85,591 refugees, 459,585 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
One-degree cells from UCDP. Country-only locations are left off. This is not a front line and not a unit position. A month appears only after 72 hours past its end. Control maps that ARC Warning cannot redistribute are linked below.
UCDP event density · 1-degree cells · through 2026-08-31 · not a front line
No monthly cells are public for this date yet. The 72-hour wait hides a month until three days after it ends.
No visually confirmed equipment catalog is stored for this conflict. That is not a count of zero.
Unit locations are omitted. Nothing on this page is a live order of battle.
No official claim is stored. An empty claim is not a zero.
Burkina Faso and Niger have their own ReliefWeb pages. Control polygons are not copied.
This publisher draws control areas. ARC Warning does not copy those polygons. The link opens the publisher's own map.
This publisher draws control areas. ARC Warning does not copy those polygons. The link opens the publisher's own map.
Mapped events in this snapshot: 6,465. Events left off the map because the source located them only at country level: 32.
Humanitarian protection and assistance.
Refugees and displacement.
Situation reports.
Medical humanitarian work.
Annual GED release. Event dates run through the dataset's last included year.
Monthly candidate release used for 2026 events that are not in GED 26.1.
Year-end stocks of refugees, asylum seekers, and internally displaced people, by origin. Not a fatality count.
National population used only as a scale comparison.
ACLED is not connected. Set ACLED_EMAIL and ACLED_API_KEY. No ACLED figure is shown.
IISS Military Balance public summaries are not copied, because no open figure from IISS was retrieved for this snapshot. The publisher is IISS, The Military Balance.