DRC and eastern Congo conflict sandbox · ARC Warning
Conflict sandbox
DRC and eastern Congo
UCDP organized-violence events in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The window starts on 1 January 2022. The country file is wider than the eastern provinces alone.
These pages read public datasets. They are not a forecast or an instruction to fight. UCDP fatality figures are that source's low, best, and high estimates. An injury count is shown when a named source publishes one, including OHCHR for Ukraine and the Gaza Ministry of Health figures cited by OCHA. A missing line means that source published no number. ARC Warning is not an emergency service.
A conflict cell is a one-degree square of events from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program. The count and the fatality figure are UCDP's, for the month on the card.
The square is the whole cell. It is not the site of one incident and it is not a front line.
Window 2022-01-01 through 2026-08-31. Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-11. Days after the dataset end are not filled in.
Events are country-wide in UCDP. ARC Warning does not trim them to an unofficial eastern-Congo outline.
Conflict briefing
Conflict briefing
2022-01-01 through 2026-08-31
Theater totals are not the count inside one map cell. UCDP publishes a finished month, so this page is not a live feed.
10,406Events. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program events mapped in this theater. Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-11. Date: 2026-08-31.
26,747Best fatality estimate. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program best fatality estimate for this theater. Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-11. Date: 2026-08-31.
Days through 2025-12-31 are UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset version 26.1 (https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/ged/ged261-csv.zip), best 24,921. Days after 2025-12-31 are UCDP Candidate Events Dataset GEDEvent_v26_0_8 (https://ucdp.uu.se/downloads/candidateged/GEDEvent_v26_0_8.csv), best 1,826. A later candidate file replaces the same event id. The figure is the sum of those best estimates. Window 2022-01-01 through 2026-08-31. Low 24,145, high 55,662. All parties. Not an injury count. Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-11.
ARC Warning. (2026). : UCDP best estimate, all parties. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/drc-eastern-congo#toll-ucdp:drc-eastern-congo:fatalities
MLA
": UCDP best estimate, all parties." ARC Warning, 2026-08-31, https://arcwarning.com/conflict/drc-eastern-congo#toll-ucdp:drc-eastern-congo:fatalities.
Plain
: UCDP best estimate, all parties. ARC Warning. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/drc-eastern-congo#toll-ucdp:drc-eastern-congo:fatalities
UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics year-end stock of internally displaced people originating from Democratic Republic of the Congo for 2025. Not a fatality count. People are not added to the death toll.
ARC Warning. (2025). Democratic Republic of the Congo: Democratic Republic of the Congo: Displaced. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/drc-eastern-congo#toll-unhcr:drc-eastern-congo:COD:displaced
MLA
"Democratic Republic of the Congo: Democratic Republic of the Congo: Displaced." ARC Warning, 2025-12-31, https://arcwarning.com/conflict/drc-eastern-congo#toll-unhcr:drc-eastern-congo:COD:displaced.
Plain
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Democratic Republic of the Congo: Displaced. ARC Warning. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/drc-eastern-congo#toll-unhcr:drc-eastern-congo:COD:displaced
UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics year-end stock of refugees originating from Democratic Republic of the Congo for 2025. Not a fatality count. People are not added to the death toll.
ARC Warning. (2025). Democratic Republic of the Congo: Democratic Republic of the Congo: Refugees. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/drc-eastern-congo#toll-unhcr:drc-eastern-congo:COD:refugees
MLA
"Democratic Republic of the Congo: Democratic Republic of the Congo: Refugees." ARC Warning, 2025-12-31, https://arcwarning.com/conflict/drc-eastern-congo#toll-unhcr:drc-eastern-congo:COD:refugees.
Plain
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Democratic Republic of the Congo: Refugees. ARC Warning. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/drc-eastern-congo#toll-unhcr:drc-eastern-congo:COD:refugees
Each point is UCDP’s best fatality estimate for that month in the named theater. Missing months are left out. The series is the theater, not this one cell.
Monthly figures
DRC 2025-03: 471. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2025-04: 257. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2025-05: 554. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2025-06: 246. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2025-07: 644. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2025-08: 464. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2025-09: 301. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2025-10: 276. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2025-11: 411. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2025-12: 518. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2026-01: 291. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2026-02: 88. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2026-03: 149. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2026-04: 200. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2026-05: 476. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2026-06: 177. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2026-07: 273. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
DRC 2026-08: 172. Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program. Date: 2026-08-31.
Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Also called FARDC.
State military
Who they are
The FARDC is the state army of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. In the east it is fighting the M23 rebellion.
Goals
Their claim:
Kinshasa says the army is defending the country against M23 and Rwandan troops.
Independent assessment:
The FARDC is the state army. UN experts say it has also fought beside local militias and the FDLR. Source: UN Group of Experts, S/2026/466, 11 June 2026.
Capabilities
Infantry. Unevenly trained and often unpaid
Local militia allies. The UN calls these Wazalendo. They are not FARDC soldiers
Limited air power. UN experts said M23 and Rwandan forces grounded army aircraft in 2024
Estimated personnel
No reliable public estimate
Backers
Independent assessment:
The army is the state force. Regional troops and UN peacekeepers have deployed under separate mandates.
M23 is an armed rebellion in eastern Congo. It fights under the wider name Alliance Fleuve Congo.
Goals
Their claim:
M23 says it is protecting Congolese Tutsi and fighting a corrupt army.
Independent assessment:
UN experts describe M23 as a rebellion backed by Rwanda that has taken large parts of North Kivu and South Kivu. Source: UN Group of Experts, S/2026/466, 11 June 2026.
Capabilities
Infantry with Rwandan support. UN experts say Rwandan troops fight beside M23
Artillery and air defense. Heavier weapons than a typical local militia
Control of mining towns. Including the Rubaya coltan area
Estimated personnel
About 30,000 fighters. The Group of Experts built this from the older M23 core, recruits since 2021, and people who joined after Goma fell. UN Group of Experts on the DRC, Jun 11 2026
Backers
Independent assessment:
UN experts say Rwanda’s army backs M23 and has troops inside Congo. Rwanda denies directing the group.
Advisories are country-wide; local conditions vary.
Countries this cell touches: Democratic Republic of the Congo.
No advisory from these feeds is stored for the countries this cell touches.
Casualty trackers
Daily and monthly counts from the cited source. A year is shown only when every month in that span is in the files, and the label is the span those months cover. A recorded-deaths total that includes events outside the subject place names those places. Each figure has an as-of date. A missing day stays blank. Nothing is averaged or scaled.
ACLED is not connected. Set ACLED_EMAIL and ACLED_API_KEY. No ACLED figure is shown.
Recorded deaths on 2026-08-31
0–4
Located across DR Congo. Not limited to the east.
As of 2026-08-31
Uppsala Conflict Data Program: 4. As of 2026-08-31. UCDP Candidate v26.0.8 Best 4, low 0, high 4. Later dates are left blank. Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-11.
Civilians killed in August 2026
136
As of 2026-08-31
Uppsala Conflict Data Program: 136. As of 2026-08-31. UCDP Candidate v26.0.8 UCDP civilians in this theater’s event series for August 2026. Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-11.
Recorded deaths in August 2026
119–237
Located across DR Congo. Not limited to the east.
As of 2026-08-31
Uppsala Conflict Data Program: 172. As of 2026-08-31. UCDP Candidate v26.0.8 Sum of UCDP event days in August 2026. Days with no event are not given a share of the month. Snapshot retrieved 2026-10-11.
Yearly totals in this window
UCDP fatality totals by year
Year
Low
Best
High
Civilians
2022Located across DR Congo. Not limited to the east.
5,709
5,920
6,594
3,702
2023Located across DR Congo. Not limited to the east.
4,113
4,383
5,789
3,052
2024Located across DR Congo. Not limited to the east.
4,706
5,446
7,963
4,312
2025Located across DR Congo. Not limited to the east.
8,305
9,172
29,659
4,914
January–August 2026Located across DR Congo. Not limited to the east.
1,312
1,826
5,657
1,286
Low and high are sums of UCDP’s per-event low and high. On some days those three numbers do not sort. They are still the published figures. Injured: not in this source. Published months run from January–August 2026. Later months are not in these files. The total is not scaled.UCDP candidate files read: v26.0.1 (GEDEvent_v26_0_1.csv), 1,727 event rows, through 2026-02-05; v26.0.2 (GEDEvent_v26_0_2.csv), 1,298 event rows, through 2026-03-11; v26.0.3 (GEDEvent_v26_0_3.csv), 1,787 event rows, through 2026-04-09; v26.0.4 (GEDEvent_v26_0_4.csv), 1,675 event rows, through 2026-05-13; v26.0.5 (GEDEvent_v26_0_5.csv), 1,686 event rows, through 2026-06-06; v26.0.6 (GEDEvent_v26_0_6.csv), 1,795 event rows, through 2026-07-08; v26.0.7 (GEDEvent_v26_0_7.csv), 1,828 event rows, through 2026-08-04; v26.0.8 (GEDEvent_v26_0_8.csv), 1,806 event rows, through 2026-09-10. ACLED has not been refreshed. No figure was added. Chart totals stay the stored snapshot. A missing count is left blank.
Killed, best estimate 26,747
Located across DR Congo. Not limited to the east.
Published low, best, and high span 24,145–55,662. Civilian deaths in that best estimate: 17,266. Status unknown: 3,538. Injured: not in this source.
14,116 of the best estimate come from events UCDP did not pin to one day. They stay on the dataset’s start date for that event.
The scale of the count
Each dot is 112 people. The best estimate is 26,747 people killed. The last dot may stand for fewer than the others. The dots are a scale, not portraits, and not a list of names.
About 1 in 4,219 of the combined 2025 population of Congo, Dem. Rep. (112,832,473, World Bank, updated 2026-10-08). Population is a scale. It is not a casualty figure.
Dem. Rep. of the Congo, 2025 UNHCR stock: 1,176,489 refugees, 5,669,479 internally displaced. These are living people in a year-end stock. They are not added to the death count.
Monthly candidate releases GEDEvent_v26_0_1 through GEDEvent_v26_0_8. Each figure links to the candidate file its events came from. An event id kept from a later file replaces the same id in an earlier file.
National population used only as a scale comparison.
ACLED is not connected. Set ACLED_EMAIL and ACLED_API_KEY. No ACLED figure is shown.
IISS Military Balance public summaries are not copied, because no open figure from IISS was retrieved for this snapshot. The publisher is IISS, The Military Balance.
