Conflict briefing
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Research dataset · UCDP
No casualty series is stored for this theater.
No verified media for this area yet.
Draft – under review
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
Also called HTS.
Non-state armed group
Who they are
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham was the armed group that held Idlib and then led the offensive into Damascus in late 2024.
Goals
Their claim: HTS says it led the offensive that took Damascus and that it is forming a new government.
Independent assessment: HTS was the strongest armed group in Idlib and is a U.S.-designated terrorist organization. Its role after December 2024 is a government question a reviewer still has to settle. Source: U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism.
Capabilities
- Infantry units. The core of the Idlib force
- Captured army weapons. Taken in the 2024 offensive
- Drones. Used in the last years of the war
Estimated personnel
As many as 10,000 fighters. State lists this under al-Nusrah Front and says that group created Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in 2017. State Department, 2023
Backers
Independent assessment: HTS broke with Islamic State years ago and has a tense history with al-Qaeda. No current foreign troop contingent is established here.
Last reviewed
Draft – under review. Updated 2026-10-12.
Sources
Draft – under review
Syrian armed forces
Also called Syrian army.
State military
Who they are
This card is the state armed force in Syria after the Assad government fell in December 2024. The roster is still being rebuilt.
Goals
Their claim: Whoever holds Damascus presents the army as the national force.
Independent assessment: The Assad government fell in December 2024. No official public headcount for the forces that replaced it was confirmed for this card.
Capabilities
- Russian and Soviet-era equipment. The stock the old army left behind
- Infantry. The surviving ground force
- Air force remnants. Badly worn down by the war
Estimated personnel
No reliable public estimate
Backers
Independent assessment: Russia and Iran backed the old government. That relationship does not describe the force now in Damascus.
Last reviewed
Draft – under review. Updated 2026-10-12.
Sources
Draft – under review
Syrian Democratic Forces
Also called SDF.
Militia
Who they are
The Syrian Democratic Forces are a Kurdish-led coalition that controls much of northeast Syria and guards Islamic State detainees.
Goals
Their claim: The SDF says it is defending northeast Syria and holding Islamic State prisoners.
Independent assessment: The SDF is a Kurdish-led coalition that still holds Islamic State detainees. The State Department said about 9,000 Islamic State fighters were in its prisons in 2023. That number is the prisoners, not the SDF. Source: Country Reports on Terrorism 2023.
Capabilities
- Light infantry. The main force
- Prisons and camps. Holding Islamic State fighters and their families
- U.S.-supplied small arms. From the campaign against Islamic State
Estimated personnel
No reliable public estimate
Backers
Independent assessment: The United States has been the SDF’s main military partner against Islamic State.
Last reviewed
Draft – under review. Updated 2026-10-12.
Sources
Advisories are country-wide; local conditions vary.
Countries this cell touches: Syria.
No advisory from these feeds is stored for the countries this cell touches.