Conflict briefing
No UCDP fatality total is stored for this theater. UCDP publishes a finished month, so this page is not a live feed.
No UCDP event total is stored for this theater.
Human toll
Somalia: Displaced
end-2025 stock
3,347,408
Earlier readings
- 2024-12-31: 3,861,643
- 2025-12-31: 3,347,408
How this number was counted
UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics year-end stock of internally displaced people originating from Somalia for 2025. Not a fatality count. People are not added to the death toll.
Cite this
Stable URL: https://arcwarning.com/conflict/somalia#toll-unhcr:somalia:SOM:displaced
APA
ARC Warning. (2025). Somalia: Somalia: Displaced. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/somalia#toll-unhcr:somalia:SOM:displaced
MLA
"Somalia: Somalia: Displaced." ARC Warning, 2025-12-31, https://arcwarning.com/conflict/somalia#toll-unhcr:somalia:SOM:displaced.
Plain
Somalia: Somalia: Displaced. ARC Warning. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/somalia#toll-unhcr:somalia:SOM:displaced
Somalia: Refugees
end-2025 stock
892,037
Earlier readings
- 2024-12-31: 894,120
- 2025-12-31: 892,037
How this number was counted
UNHCR Refugee Population Statistics year-end stock of refugees originating from Somalia for 2025. Not a fatality count. People are not added to the death toll.
Cite this
Stable URL: https://arcwarning.com/conflict/somalia#toll-unhcr:somalia:SOM:refugees
APA
ARC Warning. (2025). Somalia: Somalia: Refugees. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/somalia#toll-unhcr:somalia:SOM:refugees
MLA
"Somalia: Somalia: Refugees." ARC Warning, 2025-12-31, https://arcwarning.com/conflict/somalia#toll-unhcr:somalia:SOM:refugees.
Plain
Somalia: Somalia: Refugees. ARC Warning. https://arcwarning.com/conflict/somalia#toll-unhcr:somalia:SOM:refugees
Research dataset · UCDP
No casualty series is stored for this theater.
No verified media for this area yet.
Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen
Also called al-Shabaab.
Non-state armed group
Who they are
Al-Shabaab is al-Qaeda’s armed group in Somalia. It controls countryside in the south and center and attacks the capital.
Goals
Al-Shabaab says it is building an Islamic emirate and driving out foreign troops.
It is al-Qaeda’s branch in Somalia. The State Department says it still controls large parts of the south and center. Source: Country Reports on Terrorism 2023
Capabilities
- Suicide and roadside bombs. The group’s signature attacks
- Raids on army and African Union bases. Often large and coordinated
- Taxation of businesses. A main source of money
Estimated personnel
Between 7,000 and 12,000 members. State Department, 2023
Backers
Independent assessment:
It is tied to al-Qaeda. The UN has also described contacts with the Houthis over weapons.
Last reviewed
Approved. Updated 2026-10-12.
Sources
Somali National Army
Also called SNA.
State military
Who they are
The Somali National Army is the federal government’s army. It is fighting al-Shabaab with African Union and foreign support.
Goals
Mogadishu says the army is taking back towns from al-Shabaab.
The SNA is the federal army. Holding towns after an offensive has been the hard part. Source: U.S. Department of State, Country Reports on Terrorism 2023.
Capabilities
- Infantry brigades. Some trained with U.S. and Turkish help
- Clan militias fighting alongside. Often called Ma’awisley. They are not SNA soldiers
- Light equipment. Mostly donated secondhand kit
Estimated personnel
No reliable public estimate
Backers
Independent assessment:
The United States, Turkey, and African Union missions train or fight beside the army. They are not SNA personnel.
Last reviewed
Approved. Updated 2026-10-12.
Sources
Advisories are country-wide; local conditions vary.
Countries this cell touches: Somalia.
No advisory from these feeds is stored for the countries this cell touches.